Harvard Case - The Decision to Denuclearize: How Ukraine Became a Non-Nuclear-Weapons State
"The Decision to Denuclearize: How Ukraine Became a Non-Nuclear-Weapons State" Harvard business case study is written by John Buntin. It deals with the challenges in the field of Negotiation. The case study is 28 page(s) long and it was first published on : Sep 1, 1998
However, Russia has since violated the Budapest Memorandum by annexing Crimea and supporting separatists in eastern Ukraine. This has raised concerns about Russia's intentions and has made Ukraine reconsider its denuclearization policy.
3. Analysis of the Case Study
Ukraine's decision to denuclearize was a complex one, with a number of factors to consider. These factors included:- The cost of maintaining a nuclear arsenal. Ukraine could not afford to maintain a nuclear arsenal, and doing so would have diverted resources from other important areas, such as economic development and social welfare.
- The security risks of possessing nuclear weapons. Nuclear weapons are a major security risk, and possessing them could have made Ukraine a target for attack.
- The political benefits of denuclearization. Denuclearization would help Ukraine to improve its relations with the West and to build a more secure and prosperous future.
In light of these factors, Ukraine's decision to denuclearize was a wise one. However, the situation has changed since 1994, and Ukraine must now reconsider its options.
4. Recommendations
We recommend that Ukraine pursue a strategy of principled negotiation with Russia to achieve its goal of denuclearization. This strategy should focus on the following elements:- Building a strong BATNA. Ukraine's BATNA is its ability to maintain a nuclear arsenal. However, Ukraine should also develop other options, such as strengthening its military alliance with the West and developing a more robust civil defense system.
- Developing a clear understanding of Russia's interests. Ukraine needs to understand what Russia wants in order to develop a negotiation strategy that is likely to succeed. Russia's interests may include maintaining its influence over Ukraine, preventing Ukraine from joining NATO, and securing access to Ukraine's natural resources.
- Using a variety of negotiation tactics. Ukraine should use a variety of negotiation tactics to achieve its goals. These tactics may include distributive bargaining, integrative bargaining, and win-win solutions.
5. Basis of Recommendations
Our recommendations are based on the following considerations:- Core competencies and consistency with mission. Ukraine's core competencies include its diplomatic skills and its ability to build consensus. A strategy of principled negotiation is consistent with Ukraine's mission of building a secure and prosperous future.
- External customers and internal clients. Ukraine's external customers include the West and Russia. Ukraine's internal clients include its citizens. A strategy of principled negotiation is likely to appeal to both groups.
- Competitors. Ukraine's competitors include Russia and other countries in the region. A strategy of principled negotiation is likely to give Ukraine a competitive advantage.
- Attractiveness ' quantitative measures if applicable (e.g., NPV, ROI, break-even, payback)' A strategy of principled negotiation is likely to be attractive to Ukraine because it is likely to lead to a mutually acceptable outcome.
- Are all assumptions explicitly stated (e.g., needs, technology trends)' The assumptions underlying our recommendations are that Russia is willing to negotiate and that Ukraine is able to build a strong BATNA.
6. Conclusion
We believe that a strategy of principled negotiation is the best way for Ukraine to achieve its goal of denuclearization. This strategy is based on a sound understanding of Ukraine's interests and the interests of Russia. We believe that this strategy is likely to lead to a mutually acceptable outcome.7. Discussion
Other alternatives that Ukraine could consider include:- Maintaining a nuclear arsenal. This would be a risky option, as it could make Ukraine a target for attack.
- Joining NATO. This would provide Ukraine with a security guarantee, but it could also provoke Russia.
- Developing a more robust civil defense system. This would help to protect Ukraine from attack, but it would be expensive and time-consuming.
The risks of our recommendation include:
- Russia may not be willing to negotiate.
- Ukraine may not be able to build a strong BATNA.
- The negotiations may fail to reach a mutually acceptable outcome.
The key assumptions of our recommendation are:
- Russia is willing to negotiate.
- Ukraine is able to build a strong BATNA.
- The negotiations will be successful.
8. Next Steps
If Ukraine decides to pursue a strategy of principled negotiation, it should take the following steps:- Develop a clear understanding of its interests and the interests of Russia.
- Build a strong BATNA.
- Prepare for negotiations.
- Conduct negotiations in a professional and respectful manner.
- Be willing to compromise.
- Seek a mutually acceptable outcome.
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Case Description
When Ukraine becomes independent following the collapse and dissolution of the Soviet Union, the nation which is suddenly Europe's third most populous finds itself almost immediately caught up in high-stakes international diplomacy and negotiations. A significant part of the Soviet Union's former nuclear arsenal, including intercontinental ballistic missiles targeted at the United States, are housed within Ukraine. This case tells the story of the formation and evolution of a newly-independent nation's foreign policy, focusing on Kiev's dawning understanding of the dynamics of diplomatic negotiation, the power of nuclear weapons as bargaining chips, and its emerging sense of the nature of its national interest. HKS Case Number 1425.0
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