Harvard Case - Getting to Dayton: Negotiating an End to the War in Bosnia
"Getting to Dayton: Negotiating an End to the War in Bosnia" Harvard business case study is written by Susan Rosegrant, Michael Watkins. It deals with the challenges in the field of Strategy. The case study is 55 page(s) long and it was first published on : Jan 1, 1996
At Fern Fort University, we recommend a multi-pronged approach to negotiating an end to the war in Bosnia, focusing on building trust, addressing core grievances, and establishing a sustainable peace framework. This approach will involve a combination of strategic alliances, diplomatic efforts, economic incentives, and international pressure to achieve a lasting peace.
2. Background
The case study 'Getting to Dayton' focuses on the complex and protracted conflict in Bosnia, a multi-ethnic region within former Yugoslavia. The war, fueled by ethnic tensions and political ambitions, resulted in widespread suffering and displacement. The case highlights the challenging task of negotiating a peace agreement between warring factions, each with their own interests and grievances.
The main protagonists are:
- The Bosnian Serbs: Led by Radovan Karad'i', seeking independence and territorial gains.
- The Bosnian Muslims: Fighting for their survival and a unified Bosnia.
- The Bosnian Croats: Seeking autonomy and a separate state.
- The International Community: Led by the United States, seeking to end the conflict and establish a stable peace.
3. Analysis of the Case Study
This case study can be analyzed through the lens of various strategic frameworks:
1. Porter's Five Forces:
- Threat of New Entrants: Low, due to the high costs and risks associated with entering a war-torn region.
- Bargaining Power of Buyers: Low, as the parties involved are primarily focused on survival and security.
- Bargaining Power of Suppliers: Low, as the conflict has disrupted supply chains and limited access to resources.
- Threat of Substitutes: Low, as there are no viable substitutes for the political and territorial goals of the warring factions.
- Rivalry Among Existing Competitors: High, as the conflict is characterized by intense competition for resources, territory, and political power.
2. SWOT Analysis:
Strengths:
- International support: The United States and other international actors are committed to ending the conflict.
- Economic incentives: The possibility of post-war reconstruction and development offers economic benefits.
Weaknesses:
- Internal divisions: The warring factions are deeply divided and distrustful of each other.
- Lack of trust: Years of conflict have eroded trust between the parties.
Opportunities:
- Peace negotiations: The opportunity to negotiate a lasting peace agreement.
- International cooperation: The potential for international cooperation to rebuild the country.
Threats:
- Renewed violence: The risk of renewed violence if negotiations fail.
- Ethnic tensions: The potential for ethnic tensions to resurface after the war.
3. Value Chain Analysis:
The conflict has disrupted the value chain in Bosnia, impacting all stages from production to distribution. The peace process must focus on rebuilding the value chain and creating a stable economic environment.
4. Business Model Innovation:
The peace process presents an opportunity for business model innovation. This could involve developing new business models that promote reconciliation and economic growth, such as:
- Joint ventures: Encouraging cooperation between businesses from different ethnic groups.
- Social enterprises: Creating businesses that address social needs and promote peacebuilding.
5. Strategic Planning:
The international community needs a comprehensive strategic plan for peacebuilding in Bosnia, including:
- Clear objectives: Defining specific and measurable goals for the peace process.
- Timelines: Establishing realistic timelines for achieving key milestones.
- Resource allocation: Allocating resources effectively to support peacebuilding efforts.
6. Game Theory in Strategy:
The peace process can be analyzed through the lens of game theory, where each faction's actions are influenced by the expected actions of others. The international community must understand the incentives and motivations of each faction to design a peace agreement that is mutually beneficial.
4. Recommendations
To achieve a lasting peace in Bosnia, the international community should implement the following recommendations:
1. Build Trust:
- Facilitate dialogue: Encourage open and honest dialogue between the warring factions, facilitated by neutral mediators.
- Focus on shared interests: Highlight common interests and goals that can serve as a basis for cooperation.
- Address historical grievances: Acknowledge past injustices and establish mechanisms for reconciliation.
2. Address Core Grievances:
- Power-sharing arrangements: Establish a power-sharing government that reflects the ethnic composition of Bosnia.
- Economic development: Invest in economic development projects that benefit all communities.
- Human rights protection: Implement mechanisms to protect the human rights of all citizens.
3. Establish a Sustainable Peace Framework:
- Demilitarization: Disarm and demobilize warring factions, establishing a neutral security force.
- Justice and accountability: Hold perpetrators of war crimes accountable for their actions.
- Reconstruction and development: Invest in infrastructure, education, and healthcare to rebuild the country.
4. Leverage International Pressure:
- Economic sanctions: Impose economic sanctions on individuals and groups that obstruct the peace process.
- Diplomatic isolation: Isolate those who refuse to engage in good faith negotiations.
- Military intervention: Maintain a military presence to deter violence and enforce the peace agreement.
5. Utilize Strategic Alliances:
- Regional cooperation: Encourage cooperation between neighboring countries to support the peace process.
- International organizations: Engage with international organizations such as the UN and NATO to provide support and resources.
- Private sector involvement: Encourage private sector investment in Bosnia to promote economic growth.
5. Basis of Recommendations
These recommendations are based on the following considerations:
- Core competencies and consistency with mission: The international community's core competency lies in diplomacy and peacebuilding, aligning with the mission of ending the conflict and establishing a stable peace.
- External customers and internal clients: The external customers are the people of Bosnia, while the internal clients are the warring factions. The recommendations address the needs of both groups.
- Competitors: The competitors are the internal factions vying for power and territory. The recommendations aim to create a framework where competition is channeled into peaceful cooperation.
- Attractiveness ' quantitative measures: While quantifying the benefits of peace is challenging, the potential for economic growth, reduced conflict, and improved human well-being makes the recommendations attractive.
Assumptions:
- The international community is committed to achieving a lasting peace in Bosnia.
- The warring factions are willing to engage in good faith negotiations.
- The economic incentives offered will be sufficient to motivate cooperation.
6. Conclusion
Achieving peace in Bosnia requires a comprehensive and sustained effort from the international community. By building trust, addressing core grievances, and establishing a sustainable peace framework, the international community can help Bosnia transition from conflict to a future of peace and prosperity.
7. Discussion
Alternatives:
- Military victory: This option is highly risky and could lead to further violence and instability.
- Status quo: This option would perpetuate the suffering and displacement of the Bosnian people.
Risks:
- Failure to build trust: If trust is not built, negotiations may fail, leading to renewed violence.
- Lack of commitment: If the international community loses commitment, the peace process may falter.
- Economic instability: The post-war economy may be fragile, leading to social unrest.
Key Assumptions:
- The international community will maintain its commitment to the peace process.
- The warring factions will be willing to compromise.
- The economic incentives offered will be sufficient to motivate cooperation.
8. Next Steps
- Establish a high-level negotiating team: Assemble a team of experienced diplomats and negotiators to lead the peace process.
- Develop a comprehensive peace plan: Draft a detailed peace agreement that addresses all key issues.
- Secure international support: Mobilize international support for the peace plan and the necessary resources.
- Implement the peace agreement: Establish mechanisms to monitor and enforce the peace agreement.
- Rebuild the country: Invest in infrastructure, education, and healthcare to rebuild Bosnia.
The timeline for these steps will depend on the willingness of the parties to engage in good faith negotiations and the level of international support. However, it is essential to act swiftly and decisively to prevent further suffering and instability.
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Case Description
The road to the breakthrough Dayton Peace Accords, which ushered in the prospect of a stable peace in the war-torn former Yugoslavia, is built through an intricate, high-pressure negotiation brokered by the United States and involving Serbia, Croatia, Bosnia and the western European powers. This case focuses on the dynamics of those negotiations as led by US State Department chief negotiator Richard Holbrooke and members of his negotiating team. It raises strategy issues (When would it be wise to push for a ceasefire?); ethics issues (Is it moral to negotiate with those accused of war crimes?); and personality issues (Is it strategy or the force of Holbrooke's personality which ultimately brings the parties to the table?). Based on extensive interviews with Mr. Holbrooke, this case brings to light new details about one of the highest-stakes negotiations of the post-Cold War era. HKS Case Number 1356.0
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