Harvard Case - Colombia and FARC-EP Struggle for Peace: Government Delegation: Role 2. General Instructions + Confidential Instructions For General Pedro Carvajal, Government Delegation
"Colombia and FARC-EP Struggle for Peace: Government Delegation: Role 2. General Instructions + Confidential Instructions For General Pedro Carvajal, Government Delegation" Harvard business case study is written by Peter Kesting, Margarita Canal, Thomas Stevenson. It deals with the challenges in the field of Strategy. The case study is 10 page(s) long and it was first published on : Aug 25, 2023
At Fern Fort University, we recommend that General Pedro Carvajal, the head of the government delegation, adopts a multi-pronged strategy to achieve a lasting peace agreement with the FARC-EP. This strategy will focus on building trust, addressing underlying grievances, promoting economic development, and ensuring a robust post-conflict transition.
2. Background
The case study centers around the complex peace negotiations between the Colombian government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia - People's Army (FARC-EP). The FARC-EP, a leftist guerrilla group, has been engaged in an armed conflict with the Colombian government for over 50 years. The negotiations, initiated in 2012, aim to end the conflict and establish a lasting peace.
The main protagonists are:
- General Pedro Carvajal: The head of the government delegation, tasked with leading the negotiations and representing the Colombian government's interests.
- The FARC-EP delegation: Representing the guerrilla group, aiming to secure their interests and negotiate a favorable peace agreement.
- The Colombian government: Seeking to end the conflict, ensure national security, and promote economic development.
- The Colombian people: Seeking peace, security, and a better future for their country.
3. Analysis of the Case Study
Strategic Framework: To analyze the case, we will employ a combination of frameworks:
- Porter's Five Forces: Analyzing the competitive forces in the Colombian political landscape, including the government, FARC-EP, other armed groups, and international actors.
- SWOT Analysis: Identifying the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats for both the government and the FARC-EP.
- Stakeholder Analysis: Identifying the key stakeholders involved in the peace process and their interests.
- Game Theory: Understanding the strategic interactions and potential outcomes of the negotiations.
Analysis:
- Porter's Five Forces: The Colombian political landscape is characterized by intense rivalry between the government and the FARC-EP, with the presence of other armed groups adding further complexity. The threat of new entrants is limited, while the bargaining power of buyers and suppliers is influenced by the conflict's impact on the economy.
- SWOT Analysis:
- Government Strengths: Strong military, established institutions, international support.
- Government Weaknesses: Internal divisions, corruption, lack of public trust.
- Government Opportunities: Economic growth, international investment, peace dividend.
- Government Threats: FARC-EP's continued presence, drug trafficking, social unrest.
- FARC-EP Strengths: Guerrilla warfare expertise, control over certain territories, popular support in some regions.
- FARC-EP Weaknesses: Internal divisions, declining support, lack of legitimacy.
- FARC-EP Opportunities: Peace agreement, political participation, economic development.
- FARC-EP Threats: Military defeat, loss of territory, international pressure.
- Stakeholder Analysis: Key stakeholders include the Colombian government, FARC-EP, victims of the conflict, civil society organizations, international actors, and the Colombian people. Each stakeholder has distinct interests and priorities.
- Game Theory: The negotiations can be viewed as a complex game with multiple players, each with their own strategies and objectives. Understanding the potential outcomes and payoffs for each player is crucial for effective negotiation.
4. Recommendations
General Carvajal should implement a multi-pronged strategy with the following key elements:
Building Trust:
- Transparency and communication: Openly communicate the government's negotiating positions and intentions to the FARC-EP and the public.
- Third-party mediation: Utilize trusted international actors to facilitate dialogue and build trust between the parties.
- Confidence-building measures: Implement concrete steps to demonstrate the government's commitment to peace, such as releasing FARC-EP prisoners or initiating pilot programs for reintegration.
Addressing Underlying Grievances:
- Land reform: Implement a comprehensive land reform program to address the historical grievances of marginalized communities and reduce the appeal of armed groups.
- Social and economic development: Invest in infrastructure, education, healthcare, and economic opportunities in conflict-affected areas to address the root causes of the conflict.
- Justice and accountability: Establish a transitional justice mechanism to address the crimes committed during the conflict, ensuring accountability while promoting reconciliation.
Promoting Economic Development:
- Post-conflict economic strategy: Develop a comprehensive plan for post-conflict economic development, focusing on job creation, investment, and infrastructure development.
- International partnerships: Seek international funding and expertise to support economic development and reconstruction efforts.
- Private sector engagement: Encourage private sector investment in conflict-affected areas, creating jobs and promoting economic growth.
Ensuring a Robust Post-Conflict Transition:
- Security sector reform: Implement a comprehensive reform of the security sector, addressing human rights concerns and promoting civilian control over the military.
- Reintegration programs: Establish effective reintegration programs for former FARC-EP combatants, providing them with economic and social opportunities.
- Political participation: Guarantee the political participation of former FARC-EP members, ensuring their inclusion in the democratic process.
5. Basis of Recommendations
These recommendations are based on the following considerations:
- Core competencies and consistency with mission: The government's core competency lies in its ability to manage national security and promote economic development. The recommendations align with these competencies and the mission of achieving a lasting peace.
- External customers and internal clients: The recommendations consider the needs of the Colombian people, including victims of the conflict, as well as the interests of the FARC-EP and other stakeholders.
- Competitors: The recommendations recognize the presence of other armed groups and the need to address their grievances to prevent further violence.
- Attractiveness: The recommendations are attractive as they offer the potential for a peaceful and prosperous future for Colombia.
6. Conclusion
By adopting a multi-pronged strategy that prioritizes trust-building, grievance redress, economic development, and a robust post-conflict transition, General Carvajal can significantly increase the chances of achieving a lasting peace agreement with the FARC-EP. This strategy will require strong leadership, effective communication, and a commitment to addressing the underlying causes of the conflict.
7. Discussion
Alternatives:
- Military solution: This option is considered highly risky and could lead to further violence and instability.
- Negotiations without addressing underlying grievances: This approach could lead to a fragile peace agreement that is easily undermined by future conflicts.
Risks and Key Assumptions:
- Risk of FARC-EP intransigence: The FARC-EP may not be willing to negotiate in good faith or compromise on key demands.
- Risk of government instability: Internal divisions within the government could undermine the peace process.
- Assumption of international support: The success of the peace process depends on continued international support for Colombia.
8. Next Steps
- Develop a detailed implementation plan: Outline specific actions, timelines, and responsible parties for each recommendation.
- Establish a monitoring and evaluation framework: Regularly assess the progress of the peace process and make adjustments as needed.
- Engage with key stakeholders: Build consensus and support for the peace process among all relevant stakeholders.
Timeline:
- Short-term (1-2 years): Implement confidence-building measures, address immediate grievances, and initiate economic development programs.
- Medium-term (3-5 years): Complete security sector reform, establish reintegration programs, and promote political participation.
- Long-term (5+ years): Ensure sustainable economic development, monitor the transition, and address remaining challenges.
By taking these steps, General Carvajal can play a crucial role in achieving a lasting peace in Colombia, paving the way for a more prosperous and just future for all Colombians.
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Case Description
This case is a roleplay simulation of the negotiations between the Colombian government of President Juan Manuel Santos and FARC-EP, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia-People's Army (henceforth FARC), leading up to and after the peace agreement of 2016. The peace agreement put an end to an armed conflict that lasted for more than 50 years and cost more than 200,000 lives. The negotiations cover six Negotiation Topics: i. laying down arms & safety guarantees; ii. social integration of FARC; iii. justice & trial of war crimes; iv. political participation of FARC; v. rural reform; and vi. drug production. Students assume the roles of six participants in the negotiation, forming two delegations. One represents the Colombian Government and the other represents FARC.
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