Harvard Case - Breaking Bad (the Rules): Argentina Defaults, Inflates (and Grows), 1997-2015
"Breaking Bad (the Rules): Argentina Defaults, Inflates (and Grows), 1997-2015" Harvard business case study is written by Rafael Di Tella, Fernanda Miguel. It deals with the challenges in the field of Business & Government Relations. The case study is 34 page(s) long and it was first published on : Dec 4, 2013
At Fern Fort University, we recommend a comprehensive approach to understanding Argentina's economic history, focusing on the interplay between government policies, financial markets, and the broader global context. This analysis should highlight the complex relationship between economic growth, financial stability, and social equity in a developing country like Argentina.
2. Background
This case study examines Argentina's economic journey from 1997 to 2015, marked by periods of significant growth, punctuated by financial crises and defaults. The main protagonists are:
- The Argentine government: Navigating the complex landscape of economic policy, fiscal policy, and monetary policy, seeking to balance growth with stability.
- The Argentine people: Experiencing the direct impact of economic fluctuations on their lives, including inflation, unemployment, and poverty.
- International investors: Seeking opportunities in emerging markets like Argentina, while navigating the risks associated with political instability, currency fluctuations, and default risk.
3. Analysis of the Case Study
This case study can be analyzed through multiple lenses:
Economic Perspective:
- Economic cycles and trends: Argentina experienced boom-and-bust cycles driven by foreign investment, commodity prices, and global economic conditions.
- Exchange rates: The convertibility plan initially stabilized the Argentine Peso but ultimately proved unsustainable, leading to a dramatic devaluation.
- Inflation: The case demonstrates the challenges of managing inflation in a developing country, with consequences for purchasing power and economic stability.
- Financial crisis: Argentina's economic history is marked by recurrent financial crises, highlighting the need for robust risk management and financial regulation.
Political Perspective:
- Government policy and regulation: Argentina's economic policies, including fiscal policy, monetary policy, and trade policies, significantly influenced economic outcomes.
- Politics: Political instability and government intervention in the economy played a role in exacerbating economic challenges.
- International relations: Argentina's economic fortunes were intertwined with global economic trends and international finance.
Business Perspective:
- International business: The case highlights the challenges and opportunities for multinational corporations operating in emerging markets like Argentina.
- Corporate strategy: Businesses needed to adapt to the volatile economic environment, including risk management, currency hedging, and supply chain diversification.
- Competitive strategy: The case explores how businesses navigated a dynamic competitive landscape, influenced by government policies, exchange rates, and economic cycles.
Social Perspective:
- Developing countries: The case study underscores the challenges faced by developing countries in achieving sustainable economic growth, social equity, and poverty reduction.
- Social policy: The impact of economic policies on social welfare, unemployment, and poverty is a key consideration.
- Environmental sustainability: The case study can also explore the link between economic development and environmental sustainability in Argentina.
4. Recommendations
Strengthening Institutions: Argentina needs to focus on building strong, independent institutions, including a central bank, regulatory bodies, and judicial system, to ensure transparency, accountability, and rule of law. This will enhance investor confidence and promote long-term economic stability.
Diversifying the Economy: Argentina should prioritize diversifying its economy beyond its reliance on commodities. This can be achieved through promoting innovation, entrepreneurship, and investment in sectors like technology, manufacturing, and services.
Fiscal Discipline: Implementing a sustainable fiscal policy with reduced government debt and increased tax collection is crucial for long-term economic stability. This will require political will and commitment to fiscal responsibility.
Promoting Foreign Investment: Argentina needs to create a more attractive environment for foreign direct investment by improving infrastructure, simplifying regulatory processes, and reducing political risk. This will attract capital and stimulate economic growth.
Social Equity and Inclusion: Addressing poverty and inequality is essential for sustainable development. This involves investing in education, healthcare, and social safety nets to ensure equitable access to opportunities for all citizens.
5. Basis of Recommendations
These recommendations are based on the following considerations:
- Core competencies and consistency with mission: Strengthening institutions, diversifying the economy, and promoting social equity align with Argentina's long-term development goals.
- External customers and internal clients: These recommendations aim to attract foreign investment, create jobs, and improve the quality of life for Argentine citizens.
- Competitors: Argentina needs to compete effectively in the global economy, requiring a focus on innovation, efficiency, and competitiveness.
- Attractiveness ' quantitative measures if applicable: These recommendations are expected to contribute to higher economic growth, reduced poverty, and increased investor confidence.
6. Conclusion
Argentina's economic journey has been marked by both successes and challenges. The country has experienced periods of significant growth, but also recurrent financial crises and defaults. The case study highlights the importance of sound economic policies, strong institutions, and a commitment to social equity for achieving sustainable development.
7. Discussion
Other alternatives not selected include:
- Currency Peg: While a currency peg can provide short-term stability, it can also lead to a loss of monetary policy independence and exacerbate economic imbalances.
- Government Intervention: While government intervention can be beneficial in certain circumstances, excessive intervention can distort markets and hinder long-term growth.
Key assumptions of the recommendations include:
- Political will: Implementing these recommendations requires strong political will and commitment to reform.
- Institutional capacity: Argentina needs to strengthen its institutions to effectively implement and enforce policies.
- Global economic environment: The success of these recommendations will depend on the global economic context, including international trade and investment flows.
8. Next Steps
- Establish a National Economic Council: This council would be responsible for developing and implementing a comprehensive economic strategy, including fiscal and monetary policy, structural reforms, and social programs.
- Promote Public-Private Partnerships: Encourage collaboration between the government and private sector to invest in infrastructure, technology, and education.
- Implement a National Innovation Strategy: Invest in research and development, technology transfer, and entrepreneurship to foster a more diversified and innovative economy.
- Strengthen Social Safety Nets: Expand and improve social programs to address poverty, inequality, and unemployment.
By taking these steps, Argentina can move towards a more stable, diversified, and inclusive economy, ensuring a brighter future for its citizens.
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Case Description
In late October 2011, after losing 1 billion of dollar reserves in one month, the Argentine government began imposing a series of currency controls, limiting the ability to buy foreign currency. As of October 2011, Argentina's tax collection agency AFIP had been granted the power to approve or reject all requests to buy dollars with pesos in Argentina's banking system. By June 2012, AFIP had removed ""saving"" as a legitimate explanation. While the official exchange rate was approaching six pesos to the dollar, the black market was demanding almost ten pesos to the dollar-a nearly 65% difference. These were not the first currency restrictions that Argentina had imposed on its citizens.
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