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Harvard Case - Politics of a Covert Action: The US, the 'Mujahideen', and the Stinger Missile

"Politics of a Covert Action: The US, the 'Mujahideen', and the Stinger Missile" Harvard business case study is written by Kirsten Lundberg, Ernest May, Philip Zelikow. It deals with the challenges in the field of Strategy. The case study is 64 page(s) long and it was first published on : Nov 9, 1999

At Fern Fort University, we recommend a comprehensive review of the US government's covert action strategy, particularly concerning the use of advanced weaponry in volatile geopolitical situations. This review should incorporate a multi-faceted approach, considering the ethical, strategic, and long-term implications of such actions. The review should also assess the potential for unintended consequences and the need for robust accountability mechanisms to mitigate risks.

2. Background

This case study explores the complex and ethically charged decision-making process surrounding the US government's covert support of the Afghan Mujahideen during the Soviet-Afghan War. The case highlights the use of the Stinger missile, a highly effective anti-aircraft weapon, as a key element in the US strategy to weaken the Soviet Union. While the Stinger missile proved instrumental in bolstering the Mujahideen's resistance, its use also had unintended consequences, contributing to the rise of Al-Qaeda and the eventual emergence of the Taliban.

The central protagonists in this case are:

• The US government: The decision-maker and provider of military aid, seeking to undermine the Soviet Union's influence in Afghanistan.
• The Mujahideen: The Afghan resistance fighters receiving US support, fighting against the Soviet-backed Afghan government.
• The Soviet Union: The occupying force in Afghanistan, facing growing resistance from the Mujahideen.
• The Afghan people: The civilian population caught in the crossfire of the conflict, enduring the devastating consequences of war.

3. Analysis of the Case Study

This case study provides a compelling example of the complexities of international relations and the unintended consequences of covert actions. It can be analyzed through various lenses, including:

Strategic Analysis:

• Competitive Advantage: The US sought to gain a strategic advantage over the Soviet Union by supporting the Mujahideen, weakening their position in Afghanistan. This strategy was successful in the short term but had long-term implications.
• Porter's Five Forces: The case highlights the intense rivalry between the US and the Soviet Union, the emergence of new entrants (the Mujahideen), and the bargaining power of the suppliers (arms manufacturers).
• Value Chain: The US government's value chain involved resource allocation, weapons development, intelligence gathering, and covert operations. The Mujahideen's value chain involved utilizing the provided weapons to fight the Soviet Union.
• Business Model Innovation: The US government's use of covert action as a tool for achieving strategic objectives can be seen as a form of business model innovation, albeit one with significant ethical and political ramifications.

Ethical Analysis:

• Corporate Social Responsibility: The case raises questions about the US government's responsibility towards the Afghan people and the potential for unintended consequences of its actions.
• Stakeholder Analysis: The case highlights the diverse range of stakeholders affected by the US's actions, including the Afghan people, the Mujahideen, the Soviet Union, and the international community.
• Organizational Values: The case raises questions about the values and principles guiding the US government's foreign policy decisions, particularly in the context of covert actions.

Long-Term Implications:

• Strategic Foresight: The case demonstrates the importance of strategic foresight in anticipating the long-term consequences of short-term actions. The US government failed to adequately consider the potential for the Mujahideen to become a destabilizing force after the Soviet withdrawal.
• Disruptive Innovation: The Stinger missile can be considered a disruptive innovation, empowering the Mujahideen to effectively counter the Soviet air force. This disruption led to unforeseen changes in the balance of power in Afghanistan.
• Industry Lifecycle: The case showcases the dynamic nature of the global security landscape, highlighting the rapid evolution of technology and the emergence of new threats.

4. Recommendations

Based on the case study analysis, we recommend the following:

1. Establish a comprehensive review process for covert actions: This process should include a thorough assessment of the potential risks and benefits of each action, considering ethical implications, unintended consequences, and long-term impacts.
2. Develop robust accountability mechanisms: These mechanisms should ensure transparency, oversight, and accountability for all covert actions, including clear lines of responsibility and a system for independent review.
3. Prioritize long-term strategic planning: The US government should prioritize long-term strategic planning, considering the potential for unintended consequences and the need to manage the ripple effects of its actions.
4. Invest in conflict resolution and peacebuilding efforts: The US should invest in conflict resolution and peacebuilding efforts in regions where covert actions are being considered, aiming to address the root causes of conflict and promote sustainable peace.
5. Foster international cooperation and collaboration: The US should foster international cooperation and collaboration in addressing global security challenges, working with allies to develop shared strategies and mitigate risks.

5. Basis of Recommendations

These recommendations are based on the following considerations:

1. Core competencies and consistency with mission: The US government's core competency in foreign policy is promoting national security and global stability. This mission should be guided by ethical principles and a commitment to long-term peace.
2. External customers and internal clients: The US government's external customers include the American people, the international community, and the citizens of countries where covert actions are undertaken. Internal clients include government agencies involved in national security and foreign policy.
3. Competitors: The US government's primary competitors are other nations seeking to exert influence in the global arena. The US must be mindful of the potential for its actions to create unintended consequences that could benefit its competitors.
4. Attractiveness ' quantitative measures if applicable: The attractiveness of these recommendations can be assessed by considering the potential for reducing the risk of unintended consequences, promoting long-term stability, and enhancing the US government's reputation for ethical conduct.

6. Conclusion

The case study of the US government's covert action in Afghanistan highlights the complex and multifaceted nature of international relations. While the use of the Stinger missile was successful in achieving short-term strategic objectives, it also had long-term consequences that continue to resonate today. By adopting a more comprehensive and ethical approach to covert actions, the US government can better mitigate risks and promote long-term stability in the global arena.

7. Discussion

Other alternatives not selected include:

• Continuing the current approach: This would involve continuing to use covert actions without significant changes to the review process or accountability mechanisms. This approach carries a high risk of unintended consequences and ethical concerns.
• Abandoning covert actions altogether: This would eliminate the potential for unintended consequences but could also limit the US government's ability to respond to certain threats.

Key assumptions of our recommendations include:

• The US government is committed to promoting peace and stability in the world.
• The US government is willing to invest in long-term strategic planning and conflict resolution efforts.
• The international community is willing to cooperate with the US in addressing global security challenges.

8. Next Steps

The following steps should be taken to implement our recommendations:

• Within 6 months: Conduct a comprehensive review of the US government's covert action strategy.
• Within 1 year: Develop and implement robust accountability mechanisms for covert actions.
• Within 2 years: Establish a dedicated office for long-term strategic planning and conflict resolution efforts.
• Within 3 years: Foster international cooperation and collaboration on global security challenges.

By taking these steps, the US government can move towards a more responsible and effective approach to covert actions, mitigating risks and promoting long-term stability in the global arena.

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Case Description

This case tells the inside story of one of the most controversial episodes in the history of the US intelligence services. Its focus: whether to break the time-honored rules of CIA covert actions in order to supply Afghan rebels (fighting in the 1980s to oust invading Soviet forces) with US-made, state-of-the-art Stinger missiles. The case offers an unusual glimpse into the policymaking process for intelligence decisions, especially covert actions--secret activities meant to advance US foreign policy objectives without revealing the hand of the US government. It describes a pitched internal debate among the Defense Department, CIA's Operations Directorate, CIA leadership, the Department of State, and the Joint Chiefs of Staff over the advisability of providing the Stinger anti-aircraft weapon to Afghan mujahideen. Advocates said the Stinger could help win the war. Opponents argued it made the US role transparent, which could escalate the conflict to superpower level; might increase the risk of retaliation against staging-area Pakistan; and created a threat that terrorists would get possession of the weapon. HKS Case Number 1546.0

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