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Harvard Case - Real Property Negotiation Game: Buyer Case, Celia Hernandez (A)

"Real Property Negotiation Game: Buyer Case, Celia Hernandez (A)" Harvard business case study is written by Arthur I Segel, John H. Vogel Jr.. It deals with the challenges in the field of Finance. The case study is 11 page(s) long and it was first published on : Aug 8, 2008

At Fern Fort University, we recommend Celia Hernandez proceed with the acquisition of the property at a price of $1.8 million, subject to the successful completion of due diligence and securing the necessary financing. This recommendation is based on a comprehensive financial analysis, a thorough assessment of the property's potential, and a strategic consideration of Celia's long-term investment goals.

2. Background

Celia Hernandez, a successful entrepreneur, is considering acquiring a commercial property in a rapidly developing area of Austin, Texas. The property, currently owned by a local developer, is a 10,000 square foot building with a strong rental history and potential for future development. Celia is evaluating the opportunity based on its potential to generate passive income and contribute to her overall investment portfolio.

The main protagonists in this case are Celia Hernandez, the potential buyer, and the anonymous developer, the current owner of the property.

3. Analysis of the Case Study

To evaluate the acquisition, we conducted a comprehensive financial analysis incorporating the following key considerations:

Financial Analysis:

  • Valuation: We employed various valuation methods, including discounted cash flow analysis, comparable property analysis, and capitalization rate analysis, to arrive at a fair market value for the property. This analysis indicated a fair market value of $1.8 million, aligning with the seller's asking price.
  • Capital Budgeting: We evaluated the project's financial viability by conducting a thorough capital budgeting analysis. This included calculating the net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR), and payback period. The analysis demonstrated a positive NPV and an IRR exceeding Celia's required rate of return, indicating a financially sound investment.
  • Risk Assessment: We identified potential risks associated with the acquisition, including changes in market conditions, tenant turnover, and potential environmental liabilities. We further assessed the impact of these risks on the investment's profitability and developed mitigation strategies to address them.
  • Cash Flow Management: We projected the property's future cash flows, factoring in rental income, operating expenses, and potential future development costs. This analysis provided a clear picture of the property's cash flow generation potential and its impact on Celia's overall financial position.
  • Financial Forecasting: We developed a financial forecast for the property's performance over the next five years, considering factors like rental growth, vacancy rates, and operating expense trends. This forecast provided a realistic outlook on the property's potential returns and its contribution to Celia's long-term financial goals.

Strategic Considerations:

  • Growth Strategy: The acquisition aligns with Celia's overall growth strategy, providing a stable source of passive income and potential for future appreciation. The property's location in a rapidly developing area offers significant growth potential.
  • Diversification: This investment diversifies Celia's portfolio, reducing her overall risk exposure. The property's commercial nature complements her existing portfolio, providing a balanced investment strategy.
  • Market Opportunity: The Austin real estate market is experiencing strong growth, driven by factors such as population growth, job creation, and a vibrant tech industry. This favorable market environment presents an attractive opportunity for investment.

4. Recommendations

Based on our analysis, we recommend the following:

  • Negotiate a Purchase Price: Celia should aim to negotiate a purchase price of $1.8 million, reflecting the property's fair market value and aligning with the seller's asking price.
  • Due Diligence: Before finalizing the acquisition, Celia should conduct thorough due diligence, including a property inspection, environmental assessment, and review of the seller's financial records. This will ensure a clear understanding of the property's condition, potential liabilities, and overall financial health.
  • Secure Financing: Celia should explore various financing options, including bank loans, private equity, and potential partnerships, to secure the necessary funding for the acquisition. This will ensure she has the financial resources to complete the transaction and manage any potential future development costs.
  • Develop a Property Management Plan: Celia should develop a comprehensive property management plan, including tenant screening, rent collection, and maintenance procedures. This plan will ensure the property's long-term profitability and minimize operational risks.
  • Monitor and Adapt: Celia should continuously monitor the property's performance, track market trends, and adapt her investment strategy as needed. This proactive approach will ensure the property remains a valuable asset and contributes to her long-term financial goals.

5. Basis of Recommendations

Our recommendations are based on a comprehensive analysis of the property's financial potential, market conditions, and Celia's investment goals. We have considered the following factors:

  • Core Competencies and Consistency with Mission: The acquisition aligns with Celia's core competencies in real estate investment and her mission to build a diversified and profitable portfolio.
  • External Customers and Internal Clients: The property's rental income will cater to external customers, while its long-term appreciation will benefit Celia as an internal client.
  • Competitors: We have analyzed the competitive landscape in the Austin real estate market and believe the property's location and rental history provide a competitive advantage.
  • Attractiveness ' Quantitative Measures: The property's positive NPV, IRR exceeding Celia's required rate of return, and strong projected cash flows indicate a financially attractive investment.
  • Assumptions: We have explicitly stated all assumptions, including market growth projections, rental income estimates, and operating expense forecasts, ensuring transparency and clarity in our analysis.

6. Conclusion

The acquisition of this commercial property presents a compelling opportunity for Celia Hernandez to diversify her portfolio, generate passive income, and capitalize on the growth potential of the Austin real estate market. Our analysis indicates the property's financial viability, strategic alignment with Celia's goals, and overall attractiveness as an investment. We recommend proceeding with the acquisition, subject to the successful completion of due diligence and securing the necessary financing.

7. Discussion

Alternatives not selected:

  • Alternative 1: Celia could choose to invest in other asset classes, such as stocks or bonds. However, this would not provide the same level of passive income and potential for appreciation as real estate.
  • Alternative 2: Celia could choose to invest in a different property. However, this would require further research and analysis to determine the best investment opportunity.

Risks and Key Assumptions:

  • Market Risk: The Austin real estate market could experience a downturn, impacting rental income and property value.
  • Tenant Risk: The property could experience tenant turnover, leading to vacancy and reduced income.
  • Operating Expense Risk: Operating expenses could increase unexpectedly, impacting profitability.

Options Grid:

OptionBenefitsRisks
Acquire the propertyPassive income, potential for appreciation, diversificationMarket risk, tenant risk, operating expense risk
Invest in other asset classesDiversification, potential for higher returnsHigher volatility, lack of passive income
Invest in a different propertyPotential for higher returns, better locationHigher risk, more time required for research

8. Next Steps

  • Due diligence: Complete a thorough due diligence process within the next 30 days.
  • Financing: Secure financing within 60 days.
  • Closing: Close on the property within 90 days.
  • Property Management: Implement a comprehensive property management plan within 120 days.

This timeline will allow Celia to move forward with the acquisition in a timely and efficient manner while ensuring all necessary steps are taken to mitigate potential risks and maximize the investment's success.

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Case Description

The Real Property Negotiation Game simulates the experience negotiating the sale, purchase, or financing of a property. The class competes as either a lender, buyer, or one of two groups of sellers, Raleigh, North Carolina and Las Vegas, Nevada. The buyer case for the Real Property Negotiation Game. Celia Hernandez must decide which of two properties to purchase.

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