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Harvard Case - 1994-95 Mexican Peso Crisis

"1994-95 Mexican Peso Crisis" Harvard business case study is written by Kenneth A. Froot, Matthew McBrady. It deals with the challenges in the field of Finance. The case study is 25 page(s) long and it was first published on : Jan 14, 1996

At Fern Fort University, we recommend a multi-pronged approach to address the 1994-95 Mexican Peso Crisis, focusing on a combination of financial strategy, risk management, and government policy and regulation. This strategy aims to stabilize the peso, restore investor confidence, and prevent future crises.

2. Background

The 1994-95 Mexican Peso Crisis was a severe financial crisis triggered by a sudden loss of confidence in the Mexican economy. This resulted in a sharp depreciation of the peso, a surge in inflation, and a significant decline in economic activity. The crisis was exacerbated by a number of factors, including:

  • Large current account deficit: Mexico had been running a large current account deficit for several years, funded by foreign investment. This made the economy vulnerable to shifts in investor sentiment.
  • Fixed exchange rate: The peso was pegged to the US dollar, making it difficult for the Mexican government to adjust to changing economic conditions.
  • Political instability: The assassination of Luis Donaldo Colosio, the ruling party's presidential candidate, in March 1994, created political uncertainty and further eroded investor confidence.

The main protagonists of the case study are the Mexican government, the Bank of Mexico (the central bank), and international financial institutions like the IMF.

3. Analysis of the Case Study

We can analyze the crisis using the following frameworks:

Financial Analysis:

  • Balance Sheet Analysis: The Mexican government had a large external debt, making it vulnerable to a sudden outflow of foreign capital.
  • Income Statement: The crisis led to a sharp decline in economic activity, resulting in lower tax revenues and higher government spending.
  • Ratio Analysis: Key ratios like the current account deficit, debt-to-GDP ratio, and inflation rate highlighted the fragility of the Mexican economy.
  • Financial Risk Management: The government's lack of effective risk management strategies, including hedging against currency fluctuations, contributed to the crisis.

Government Policy and Regulation:

  • Capital Budgeting: The government's investment decisions, particularly in infrastructure projects, contributed to the large current account deficit.
  • Financial Regulations: The lack of strong financial regulations allowed for excessive borrowing and speculation, exacerbating the crisis.
  • Government Policy: The government's fixed exchange rate policy, while intended to stabilize the peso, ultimately contributed to the crisis by preventing necessary adjustments.

International Finance:

  • Foreign Investments: The reliance on foreign investment to finance the current account deficit made the economy vulnerable to sudden capital outflows.
  • International Business: The crisis highlighted the interconnectedness of global financial markets and the potential for contagion effects.

4. Recommendations

To address the 1994-95 Mexican Peso Crisis, we recommend the following:

1. Devaluation of the Peso: Allow the peso to depreciate against the US dollar to make Mexican exports more competitive and reduce the current account deficit.

2. Tightening Monetary Policy: The Bank of Mexico should raise interest rates to attract foreign capital and slow down inflation.

3. Fiscal Consolidation: The government should reduce spending and raise taxes to stabilize public finances and reduce the budget deficit.

4. Structural Reforms: Implement structural reforms to improve the business environment, attract foreign investment, and increase productivity.

5. Strengthening Financial Regulations: Introduce stricter regulations on banks and financial institutions to prevent excessive borrowing and speculation.

6. International Cooperation: Seek support from international financial institutions like the IMF to provide financial assistance and technical expertise.

7. Communication Strategy: The government should clearly communicate its policies and actions to restore investor confidence.

8. Long-Term Strategy: Develop a long-term strategy to address the underlying causes of the crisis, including the current account deficit and the reliance on foreign investment.

5. Basis of Recommendations

These recommendations are based on the following considerations:

  1. Core Competencies and Consistency with Mission: The recommendations are aligned with the government's mission to stabilize the economy and promote growth.
  2. External Customers and Internal Clients: The recommendations aim to restore investor confidence and protect the interests of businesses and individuals.
  3. Competitors: The devaluation of the peso would make Mexican exports more competitive in the global market.
  4. Attractiveness ' Quantitative Measures: The recommendations are expected to improve the balance of payments, reduce inflation, and boost economic growth.
  5. Assumptions: The recommendations assume that the government is committed to implementing the necessary reforms and that international financial institutions will provide adequate support.

6. Conclusion

The 1994-95 Mexican Peso Crisis highlighted the importance of sound economic policies, effective risk management, and strong financial regulations. By implementing the recommended measures, the Mexican government can stabilize the peso, restore investor confidence, and prevent future crises.

7. Discussion

Alternatives:

  • Floating Exchange Rate: While a floating exchange rate would allow for greater flexibility, it could also lead to greater volatility and uncertainty.
  • Currency Board: A currency board would fix the peso to the US dollar, but it would limit the government's ability to use monetary policy.

Risks and Key Assumptions:

  • Political Instability: The success of the recommendations depends on the government's ability to implement them effectively and maintain political stability.
  • International Support: The recommendations assume that the government will receive adequate support from international financial institutions.
  • Time Lag: The impact of the recommendations may take time to materialize.

8. Next Steps

The government should immediately implement the recommended measures, including devaluing the peso, tightening monetary policy, and seeking international support. It should also develop a long-term strategy to address the underlying causes of the crisis. Key milestones include:

  • Devaluation of the Peso: Within the next few weeks.
  • Tightening Monetary Policy: Within the next few weeks.
  • Fiscal Consolidation: Within the next few months.
  • Structural Reforms: Within the next few years.
  • Strengthening Financial Regulations: Within the next few years.

By taking decisive action and implementing a comprehensive strategy, the Mexican government can overcome the 1994-95 Peso Crisis and build a more resilient economy.

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Case Description

Explores the peso crisis of 1994-95 and why it occurred. Students must examine Mexico's policies, the capital market's reactions, and the implications of devaluation for future capital flows and growth.

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