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Harvard Case - Global Asset Allocation: Whither the U.S. Dollar?

"Global Asset Allocation: Whither the U.S. Dollar?" Harvard business case study is written by Francis Warnock, Marc Chandler. It deals with the challenges in the field of Finance. The case study is 28 page(s) long and it was first published on : Jun 15, 2009

At Fern Fort University, we recommend a multi-pronged approach to global asset allocation in light of the evolving landscape of the U.S. dollar. This strategy involves a balanced portfolio with a reduced emphasis on U.S. dollar-denominated assets and a strategic diversification into other currencies and asset classes. This approach will be guided by rigorous financial analysis, risk management, and economic forecasting, with a focus on maximizing returns while mitigating potential currency fluctuations and market volatility.

2. Background

This case study focuses on the investment decision facing a hypothetical global asset manager, 'Global Investments,' in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. The firm seeks to develop a long-term investment strategy for its clients, considering the potential impact of the U.S. dollar's declining strength against other currencies. The case highlights the complex interplay of factors influencing global asset allocation, including economic growth, interest rates, inflation, and geopolitical risks.

The main protagonists are the firm's senior management team, responsible for developing and implementing the investment strategy. They face the challenge of balancing the need for strong returns with the desire to protect client capital from potential currency fluctuations and market downturns.

3. Analysis of the Case Study

The case study can be analyzed through the lens of portfolio management and international finance.

Portfolio Management:

  • Diversification: The case highlights the importance of diversifying across asset classes and geographic regions to mitigate risk.
  • Risk Management: The firm needs to assess and manage various risks, including currency risk, interest rate risk, and market risk.
  • Performance Measurement: The firm must establish clear performance benchmarks and track the performance of its portfolio against these benchmarks.

International Finance:

  • Currency Fluctuations: The case underscores the impact of currency fluctuations on investment returns.
  • Economic Forecasting: The firm needs to analyze and forecast economic conditions in different countries to make informed investment decisions.
  • Global Market Dynamics: The firm must understand the interplay of global economic and political factors that influence investment opportunities.

4. Recommendations

1. Reduce U.S. Dollar Exposure: Gradually reduce the portfolio's exposure to U.S. dollar-denominated assets. This can be achieved by:

  • Investing in non-U.S. dollar-denominated assets: This could include fixed income securities issued by governments and corporations in other countries, equities in foreign markets, and real estate in emerging markets.
  • Using hedging strategies: Implement hedging techniques to mitigate currency risk, such as forward contracts, options, and currency swaps.

2. Diversify Across Asset Classes: Expand the portfolio to include a wider range of asset classes, including:

  • Commodities: Invest in commodities like gold, oil, and agricultural products as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty.
  • Alternative Investments: Explore alternative investments such as private equity, hedge funds, and real estate.
  • Emerging Markets: Allocate a portion of the portfolio to emerging markets, which offer potential for higher returns but also carry higher risks.

3. Implement a Dynamic Asset Allocation Strategy: Adopt a flexible approach to asset allocation, adjusting the portfolio based on changing economic conditions and market trends. This can be achieved by:

  • Regularly monitoring market data: Continuously track economic indicators, interest rate movements, and global events.
  • Adjusting asset allocation weights: Rebalance the portfolio based on the latest market information and risk assessments.
  • Utilizing technology and analytics: Leverage advanced financial models and data analytics tools to optimize asset allocation decisions.

5. Basis of Recommendations

These recommendations are based on the following considerations:

  • Core Competencies and Consistency with Mission: The recommendations align with the firm's core competencies in investment management and asset management, while remaining consistent with its mission to deliver strong returns for its clients.
  • External Customers and Internal Clients: The recommendations address the concerns of both external clients seeking to protect their investments and internal stakeholders seeking to maximize profitability.
  • Competitors: The recommendations aim to differentiate the firm's investment strategy from competitors by emphasizing a more diversified and dynamic approach to global asset allocation.
  • Attractiveness ' Quantitative Measures: The recommendations are expected to improve the portfolio's long-term returns by mitigating currency risk and diversifying across asset classes. This can be measured through metrics such as risk-adjusted returns, Sharpe ratios, and volatility.

6. Conclusion

In the face of a declining U.S. dollar and a volatile global market, a multi-pronged approach to global asset allocation is essential. This strategy involves a balanced portfolio with a reduced emphasis on U.S. dollar-denominated assets, a strategic diversification into other currencies and asset classes, and a dynamic asset allocation strategy. By implementing these recommendations, Global Investments can position itself to navigate the changing global landscape and deliver strong returns for its clients while managing risk effectively.

7. Discussion

Alternatives Not Selected:

  • Maintaining a high U.S. dollar exposure: This approach carries significant currency risk and may not be suitable for the current market environment.
  • Investing solely in emerging markets: While emerging markets offer growth potential, they also carry higher risks, making this approach too risky for a conservative investor.

Risks and Key Assumptions:

  • Economic Forecasting: The success of the recommendations relies on accurate economic forecasting. If economic conditions change unexpectedly, the portfolio's performance could be impacted.
  • Market Volatility: Market volatility can impact the performance of any investment strategy. The firm needs to be prepared to adjust its approach based on market fluctuations.
  • Geopolitical Risks: Geopolitical events can have a significant impact on global markets. The firm must be aware of and manage these risks.

Options Grid:

OptionAdvantagesDisadvantages
Reduce U.S. Dollar ExposureMitigates currency risk, diversifies portfolioRequires careful monitoring and adjustments
Diversify Across Asset ClassesReduces overall portfolio risk, increases potential returnsRequires expertise in various asset classes
Dynamic Asset Allocation StrategyAdapts to changing market conditions, optimizes returnsRequires constant monitoring and adjustments

8. Next Steps

  • Develop a detailed implementation plan: Define specific actions, timelines, and responsibilities for implementing the recommended strategy.
  • Conduct a thorough risk assessment: Identify and assess potential risks associated with the strategy and develop mitigation plans.
  • Monitor portfolio performance: Track the portfolio's performance against established benchmarks and make adjustments as needed.
  • Stay informed about market trends: Continuously monitor economic indicators, interest rate movements, and global events to make informed investment decisions.
  • Review and update the strategy: Regularly review the investment strategy and make adjustments based on changing market conditions and client needs.

By taking these steps, Global Investments can effectively implement its new global asset allocation strategy and achieve its investment objectives while navigating the complexities of the global financial landscape.

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Case Description

In April 2009, Rashonda Williams, responsible for global asset allocation at a large pension fund, had to decide whether the increase the allocation to foreign securities. A primary factor influencing her decision was her view on the likely path of the U.S. dollar over the next 5 to 10 years. Were we on the verge of a massive repatriation of U.S. investors' foreign portfolios? Would foreign central banks begin to diversify away from dollars? Was the dollar (and other major currencies) so undervalued that the Group of Seven (G7) might contemplate coordinated currency intervention? Williams's assessment of these issues would be a large factor in her overall assessment: Should she recommend to the board that it increase the allocation to foreign securities, or should it take this opportunity to repatriate profits and increase the weight on U.S. securities?

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