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Harvard Case - Hewlett-Packard's Merced Decision

"Hewlett-Packard's Merced Decision" Harvard business case study is written by Clayton M. Christensen, Matthew C. Verlinden. It deals with the challenges in the field of Operations Management. The case study is 18 page(s) long and it was first published on : Feb 19, 1999

At Fern Fort University, we recommend that Hewlett-Packard (HP) carefully re-evaluate the Merced project, considering its strategic alignment, market viability, and potential financial impact. While the ambition to create a revolutionary processor is commendable, the current trajectory suggests significant risks and potential for substantial financial losses. We propose a comprehensive review of the project, exploring alternative approaches, and potentially shifting focus to more promising areas within the rapidly evolving technology landscape.

2. Background

The case study focuses on HP's ambitious Merced project, a joint venture with Intel to develop a groundbreaking 64-bit processor. The project aimed to revolutionize computing by offering superior performance and capabilities. However, the project faced significant challenges, including delays, technical difficulties, and rising development costs. This led to internal dissent and questions about the project's viability.

The main protagonists in this case are:

  • HP's management: They are faced with the difficult decision of whether to continue investing in Merced or to cut their losses.
  • Intel: As a joint venture partner, Intel has a vested interest in the project's success.
  • The engineering team: They are responsible for developing the Merced processor and are deeply invested in its success.

3. Analysis of the Case Study

This case can be analyzed through the lens of strategic planning, operations strategy, and risk management.

Strategic Planning:

  • Market Alignment: The case highlights the rapid evolution of the technology landscape, with competing architectures like AMD's Opteron emerging as viable alternatives. Merced's focus on complex, high-performance computing may not align with the broader market demand for more affordable, energy-efficient solutions.
  • Competitive Advantage: While Merced aimed for a significant performance advantage, the project's delays and rising costs threatened to erode any potential competitive edge.
  • Resource Allocation: The substantial investment in Merced diverted resources from other potentially more profitable areas within HP's portfolio.

Operations Strategy:

  • Product Development: The project faced significant technical challenges, leading to delays and cost overruns. This highlights the need for robust product development processes, including rigorous testing and risk assessment.
  • Supply Chain Management: The complex nature of the project required a sophisticated supply chain, with multiple vendors and intricate manufacturing processes. The case suggests potential vulnerabilities in the supply chain, leading to delays and production bottlenecks.
  • Innovation: While the ambition to create a revolutionary processor is commendable, the case highlights the importance of balancing innovation with market realities. The project's focus on a single, complex architecture may have limited its flexibility to adapt to evolving market demands.

Risk Management:

  • Technical Risk: The case highlights the significant technical challenges faced by the project, including complex design and manufacturing processes. This underscores the importance of identifying and mitigating technical risks during the development phase.
  • Financial Risk: The project's escalating costs and potential for significant financial losses represent a major risk. HP needs to carefully assess the financial implications of continuing the project.
  • Market Risk: The rapid evolution of the technology landscape, with emerging competitors and changing market demands, poses a significant market risk. HP needs to assess the potential for Merced to compete effectively in the evolving market.

4. Recommendations

HP should undertake a comprehensive review of the Merced project, considering the following:

  1. Strategic Realignment: Re-evaluate the project's alignment with HP's overall strategic goals and market position. Assess the potential for Merced to deliver a sustainable competitive advantage in the evolving technology landscape.
  2. Financial Analysis: Conduct a thorough financial analysis, including a realistic assessment of development costs, production costs, and potential revenue streams. Consider the potential for significant financial losses and explore alternative investments that offer higher returns.
  3. Technical Review: Engage independent experts to conduct a technical review of the project, evaluating its technical feasibility, performance potential, and potential for future scalability.
  4. Market Research: Conduct comprehensive market research to assess the demand for Merced's capabilities and its potential for market penetration. Analyze the competitive landscape and identify potential threats and opportunities.
  5. Alternative Strategies: Explore alternative strategies, such as partnering with other companies, licensing the technology, or focusing on more commercially viable applications.

5. Basis of Recommendations

These recommendations are based on the following considerations:

  1. Core Competencies and Consistency with Mission: HP's core competencies lie in delivering innovative solutions and products that meet market needs. The Merced project, while ambitious, may not align with HP's overall mission to provide commercially viable solutions.
  2. External Customers and Internal Clients: The case highlights the need for HP to consider the needs of its customers and internal stakeholders. The project's delays and potential for financial losses could negatively impact customer satisfaction and employee morale.
  3. Competitors: The case highlights the emergence of competitors with more commercially viable solutions. HP needs to consider the competitive landscape and the potential for Merced to compete effectively.
  4. Attractiveness ' Quantitative Measures: The financial analysis should consider the potential for significant financial losses and compare the project's return on investment (ROI) to other investment opportunities.

6. Conclusion

The Merced project represents a bold attempt to innovate and lead the technology industry. However, the project's delays, technical challenges, and potential for significant financial losses raise serious concerns about its viability. HP needs to carefully re-evaluate the project, considering its strategic alignment, market viability, and potential financial impact. A comprehensive review, exploring alternative approaches, and potentially shifting focus to more promising areas within the rapidly evolving technology landscape is crucial for HP's future success.

7. Discussion

Alternative options not selected include:

  • Continuing the project as planned: This carries significant financial and market risks, given the project's delays and potential for further complications.
  • Abandoning the project completely: This would result in significant financial losses but would allow HP to redirect resources to more promising areas.

Key assumptions include:

  • The technology landscape will continue to evolve rapidly, with emerging competitors and changing market demands.
  • The project's technical challenges can be overcome, but this will require significant resources and time.
  • The project's financial risks can be mitigated through careful planning and execution.

8. Next Steps

HP should implement the following steps within the next three months:

  1. Form a review team: Assemble a cross-functional team of experts to conduct a comprehensive review of the Merced project.
  2. Conduct a financial analysis: Develop a detailed financial model to assess the project's potential costs, revenue streams, and return on investment.
  3. Conduct technical reviews: Engage independent experts to conduct technical reviews of the project's design, implementation, and performance potential.
  4. Develop a market analysis: Conduct comprehensive market research to assess the demand for Merced's capabilities and its potential for market penetration.
  5. Develop alternative strategies: Explore alternative strategies, such as partnering with other companies, licensing the technology, or focusing on more commercially viable applications.
  6. Present findings and recommendations: Present the findings of the review to HP's senior management team and recommend a course of action.

This timeline allows HP to thoroughly assess the project and make informed decisions about its future.

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Case Description

Describes managing the threat of disruptive technology at the high end of the computer industry. Many aspects of the innovator's dilemma can be explored.

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