Harvard Case - Fantasy Hockey: Trade or Contend?
"Fantasy Hockey: Trade or Contend?" Harvard business case study is written by Kyle Maclean, Noah Fluxgold. It deals with the challenges in the field of General Management. The case study is 5 page(s) long and it was first published on : Jul 6, 2020
At Fern Fort University, we recommend that Alex trade his team for a package of high-value draft picks and prospects. This strategy will allow him to rebuild his team with a focus on long-term success, leveraging the current market value of his established players for future assets.
2. Background
This case study focuses on Alex, a dedicated fantasy hockey manager, facing a crucial decision: whether to trade his current team for a package of draft picks and prospects or attempt to contend for the league championship this season. Alex's team is currently performing well, but he lacks the depth and long-term potential to sustain this success.
The main protagonists are Alex, the fantasy hockey manager, and his league commissioner, who plays a role in facilitating trades and ensuring fair play.
3. Analysis of the Case Study
To analyze Alex's situation, we can employ a combination of frameworks:
Strategic Analysis:
SWOT Analysis:
- Strengths: Alex's team has a strong core of established players, indicating potential for immediate success.
- Weaknesses: The team lacks depth and long-term potential, making sustained success unlikely.
- Opportunities: The trade market offers Alex the chance to acquire high-value draft picks and prospects, building a strong foundation for the future.
- Threats: Other teams in the league could also be seeking to improve their roster, potentially driving up the price of desirable players.
Porter's Five Forces:
- Threat of New Entrants: Low, as joining a fantasy league typically requires an invitation or open spot.
- Bargaining Power of Buyers: High, as players can be traded between teams, giving managers leverage in negotiations.
- Bargaining Power of Suppliers: Low, as fantasy hockey players are not real-life athletes with contractual power.
- Threat of Substitutes: Low, as fantasy hockey offers a unique combination of strategy, competition, and engagement.
- Rivalry Among Existing Competitors: High, as all managers are competing for the same limited pool of players and resources.
Financial Analysis:
- Net Present Value (NPV): While not directly applicable to fantasy hockey, the concept of NPV can be used to analyze the long-term value of acquiring draft picks and prospects compared to immediate success with the current team.
- Return on Investment (ROI): Assessing the potential ROI of trading for future assets versus using current assets to attempt a championship run is a key consideration.
4. Recommendations
We recommend that Alex pursue the following course of action:
- Initiate Trade Negotiations: Contact other managers in the league, expressing his interest in trading his established players for a combination of high-value draft picks and promising prospects.
- Prioritize Long-Term Value: Focus on acquiring draft picks and prospects with high potential, even if their immediate impact is limited.
- Utilize League Trade Rules: Leverage the league's trade rules and regulations to his advantage, maximizing the return on his trade assets.
- Negotiate with the Commissioner: Seek guidance from the commissioner regarding league rules and potential trade scenarios.
- Develop a Long-Term Strategy: Create a clear plan for building a competitive team for future seasons, utilizing the acquired assets effectively.
5. Basis of Recommendations
Our recommendations are based on the following considerations:
- Core Competencies and Consistency with Mission: Alex's goal is to build a sustainable, competitive team, which is best achieved by acquiring future assets through trades.
- External Customers and Internal Clients: Alex is the sole customer and client in this scenario, and our recommendations prioritize his long-term success.
- Competitors: Other teams in the league are potential competitors, and acquiring high-value assets will allow Alex to stay competitive in the long run.
- Attractiveness - Quantitative Measures: While not directly quantifiable, the potential value of draft picks and prospects is high, especially in a competitive fantasy hockey league.
6. Conclusion
By trading his current team for a package of draft picks and prospects, Alex can position himself for long-term success in his fantasy hockey league. This strategy allows him to leverage the current market value of his established players to build a strong foundation for the future, ensuring sustained competitiveness and ultimately increasing his chances of winning championships.
7. Discussion
Alternative options include:
- Contending with the current team: This carries the risk of falling short of championship aspirations and being left with a depleted roster for future seasons.
- Holding onto key players and acquiring complementary pieces: This could lead to a more balanced team but might not address the lack of long-term potential.
Key assumptions:
- Other managers are willing to trade for Alex's players: This depends on the league's trade dynamics and the perceived value of Alex's players.
- Alex can acquire high-value draft picks and prospects: This depends on the quality of available players and the negotiation skills of Alex.
8. Next Steps
- Identify potential trade partners: Alex should contact managers who might be interested in acquiring his established players.
- Negotiate trade packages: Alex should propose trades that offer value to both parties, focusing on acquiring high-value draft picks and promising prospects.
- Finalize trades: Once mutually agreeable terms are reached, Alex should finalize the trades with the commissioner's approval.
- Implement long-term strategy: Alex should develop a plan for utilizing the acquired assets to build a sustainable, competitive team for future seasons.
By taking these steps, Alex can successfully navigate the trade market and position himself for long-term success in his fantasy hockey league.
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Case Description
In December 2019, a member of a fantasy hockey league had to decide whether to trade away his top talent in exchange for draft picks in the following year's fantasy draft or to continue to compete for a position in the playoffs. If he traded his top players, he would forfeit his chances at competing for a championship; however, this move might put his team in a better position for the following year's fantasy hockey season. He had access to the league's historical data to help determine the likelihood of his team making the playoffs. He wanted to conduct an analysis to make an informed decision grounded by numbers.
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