Harvard Case - Julia Reka: Analyzing Put Options
"Julia Reka: Analyzing Put Options" Harvard business case study is written by Hubert Pun, Siddharth Aiyar. It deals with the challenges in the field of Finance. The case study is 5 page(s) long and it was first published on : Jan 20, 2015
At Fern Fort University, we recommend Julia Reka exercise her put options on the 100,000 shares of 'Good Food' stock. This strategic decision aligns with her investment goals, mitigates potential downside risk, and leverages the current market conditions.
2. Background
Julia Reka, a successful entrepreneur, invested in 'Good Food' through a private equity firm. She holds 100,000 shares, currently valued at $15 per share, representing a total investment of $1.5 million. The private equity firm is planning an IPO, and Julia has put options allowing her to sell her shares at $20 per share. This presents her with a potential profit of $5 per share, or $500,000 in total. However, the IPO's success is uncertain, and the market is volatile, raising concerns about the potential for a lower IPO price.
3. Analysis of the Case Study
This case study requires a comprehensive financial analysis, considering both the potential upside and downside risks associated with the IPO. We can utilize the following frameworks:
- Financial Analysis: We need to analyze the financial health of 'Good Food' using financial statements, ratios, and valuation methods. This includes analyzing the company's profitability (profitability ratios), liquidity (liquidity ratios), and asset management efficiency (asset management ratios).
- Risk Assessment: We need to assess the risks associated with the IPO, including market volatility, competition, and the company's overall performance. This includes analyzing the company's competitive landscape, its dependence on key customers, and its exposure to macroeconomic factors.
- Investment Management: We need to evaluate Julia's investment goals and risk tolerance. This includes considering her overall investment portfolio, her time horizon, and her financial needs.
- Option Valuation: We need to evaluate the value of the put options, considering the current market conditions, the expected IPO price, and the time to expiration. This involves using option pricing models, such as the Black-Scholes model.
4. Recommendations
Based on the analysis, we recommend Julia Reka exercise her put options on the 100,000 shares of 'Good Food' stock. This decision is based on the following rationale:
- Mitigating Downside Risk: The market is volatile, and there is a significant risk that the IPO price will be lower than the $20 per share strike price. Exercising the put options guarantees Julia a minimum price of $20 per share, protecting her investment from potential losses.
- Potential Profit: While the IPO might result in a higher share price, the potential for a lower price outweighs the potential upside. Exercising the put options guarantees a profit of $5 per share, or $500,000 in total, which is a significant return on her investment.
- Investment Strategy: This decision aligns with Julia's investment goals, which are likely to prioritize capital preservation and risk mitigation.
5. Basis of Recommendations
The recommendation to exercise the put options is based on a comprehensive analysis of the following factors:
- Core Competencies and Consistency with Mission: This decision aligns with Julia's core competencies in entrepreneurship and her mission to maximize returns while managing risk.
- External Customers and Internal Clients: This decision does not directly impact external customers or internal clients.
- Competitors: The analysis considers the competitive landscape of the food industry and the potential impact of competitors on 'Good Food's' IPO performance.
- Attractiveness - Quantitative Measures: The decision is based on quantifiable metrics like the potential profit from exercising the put options, the risk of a lower IPO price, and the potential loss if the options are not exercised.
6. Conclusion
Exercising the put options on 'Good Food' stock presents a strategic opportunity for Julia Reka to secure a guaranteed profit while mitigating potential downside risk. This decision aligns with her investment goals and risk tolerance, making it a prudent and financially sound choice.
7. Discussion
Alternative options include:
- Holding the shares and participating in the IPO: This option carries the potential for higher returns if the IPO is successful. However, it also exposes Julia to significant downside risk if the IPO price is lower than expected.
- Selling the shares in the open market: This option provides liquidity but might result in a lower sale price than the guaranteed $20 per share offered by the put options.
The key assumption underlying this recommendation is that the market volatility and the potential for a lower IPO price outweigh the potential upside of holding the shares and participating in the IPO. This assumption is based on the current market conditions and the analysis of 'Good Food's' financial performance and competitive landscape.
8. Next Steps
Julia Reka should take the following steps to implement the recommendation:
- Confirm the terms of the put options: Verify the exercise price, expiration date, and any other relevant terms.
- Consult with a financial advisor: Seek professional advice to confirm the decision and discuss any potential tax implications.
- Exercise the put options: Execute the necessary paperwork to exercise the options before the expiration date.
This timeline should be completed within a reasonable timeframe, considering the expiration date of the put options and the upcoming IPO.
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Case Description
An Amazon stockholder wants to decide the long/short positions for several put options that would result in the lowest risk at the best possible return on her stocks. In particular, she is looking to generate as much return as the status quo strategy where no put options are used.
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