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Harvard Case - Investment in Foreign Stock: A Cash Flow Analysis

"Investment in Foreign Stock: A Cash Flow Analysis" Harvard business case study is written by Sankarshan Basu, Vibha Tripathi. It deals with the challenges in the field of Finance. The case study is 18 page(s) long and it was first published on : Jun 1, 2023

At Fern Fort University, we recommend that the investor proceed with the investment in the foreign stock, but with a strategic approach that mitigates risk and maximizes potential return. This approach involves a comprehensive financial analysis, a robust risk management strategy, and a clear understanding of the foreign market and its economic environment.

2. Background

This case study focuses on an individual investor considering a significant investment in a foreign stock, specifically, a company in the emerging market of India. The investor, with a substantial portfolio primarily invested in U.S. fixed income securities, seeks to diversify their portfolio and potentially increase returns through exposure to international markets. The case study highlights the complexities of international investing, including currency fluctuations, political and economic risks, and the need for thorough due diligence.

The main protagonist is the individual investor, who is seeking to make a strategic decision about their investment strategy. The case study also implicitly involves the Indian company, whose performance and future prospects are key to the investment decision.

3. Analysis of the Case Study

The analysis of this case study focuses on the following key areas:

  • Financial Analysis: The investor needs to conduct a thorough financial analysis of the Indian company, including its financial statements, profitability ratios, liquidity ratios, asset management ratios, and market value ratios. This analysis will help assess the company's financial health, profitability, and growth potential.
  • Capital Budgeting: The investor needs to use capital budgeting techniques like net present value (NPV) and internal rate of return (IRR) to evaluate the potential return on investment. This analysis should consider the cost of capital, including the risk premium associated with investing in an emerging market.
  • Risk Assessment: The investor needs to identify and assess the various risks associated with investing in the Indian company and the Indian market. These risks include currency fluctuations, political instability, economic volatility, and regulatory changes.
  • International Finance: The investor needs to understand the complexities of international finance, including currency exchange rates, foreign exchange risk, and the impact of government policies and regulations on foreign investment.
  • Financial Modeling: The investor should develop a financial model to simulate different scenarios and assess the potential impact of various factors, such as currency fluctuations and economic growth, on the investment's return.

This analysis can be further enhanced by utilizing frameworks such as:

  • Porter's Five Forces: This framework can be used to analyze the competitive landscape of the Indian company's industry and assess its potential for growth and profitability.
  • SWOT Analysis: This framework can be used to identify the company's strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats, providing a comprehensive overview of its current position and future prospects.

4. Recommendations

The investor should proceed with the investment in the foreign stock, but with a strategic approach that mitigates risk and maximizes potential returns. Here are the key recommendations:

  1. Conduct a Comprehensive Due Diligence: The investor should conduct a thorough due diligence process on the Indian company, including a detailed analysis of its financial statements, management team, industry position, and competitive landscape.
  2. Develop a Robust Risk Management Strategy: The investor should develop a comprehensive risk management strategy that addresses the potential risks associated with the investment. This strategy should include hedging techniques to mitigate currency risk and diversification strategies to reduce portfolio concentration.
  3. Utilize Financial Modeling: The investor should develop a financial model to simulate different scenarios and assess the potential impact of various factors on the investment's return. This will help the investor make informed decisions about the investment and adjust their strategy as needed.
  4. Monitor the Investment Closely: The investor should monitor the investment closely and adjust their strategy as needed based on changes in the company's performance, market conditions, and economic environment.
  5. Consider a Long-Term Investment Horizon: The investor should consider a long-term investment horizon for this investment, as emerging markets often experience significant volatility in the short term.

5. Basis of Recommendations

These recommendations are based on the following considerations:

  1. Core Competencies and Consistency with Mission: The investor's core competency lies in fixed income securities. However, diversifying into international equities aligns with the mission of maximizing returns while managing risk.
  2. External Customers and Internal Clients: This recommendation considers the investor's needs for portfolio diversification and potential for higher returns.
  3. Competitors: This recommendation considers the competitive landscape in the Indian market and the company's potential for growth within that market.
  4. Attractiveness ' Quantitative Measures: The recommendation is based on the potential for high returns, as indicated by the company's strong financial performance and growth prospects. The analysis utilizes NPV and IRR to assess the investment's attractiveness.
  5. Assumptions: The recommendations are based on the assumption that the Indian company will continue to grow and maintain its strong financial performance.

6. Conclusion

Investing in foreign stocks, particularly in emerging markets, presents both opportunities and risks. By conducting a thorough financial analysis, developing a robust risk management strategy, and taking a long-term investment perspective, the investor can maximize the potential returns while mitigating the risks associated with this investment.

7. Discussion

Other alternatives to investing in the Indian company include:

  • Investing in a diversified emerging market ETF: This option provides exposure to a broader range of companies and industries within the emerging market, potentially reducing risk.
  • Investing in a U.S. company with significant exposure to the Indian market: This option provides exposure to the Indian market through a U.S.-listed company, potentially reducing currency risk and regulatory complexities.

Key assumptions of the recommendations include:

  • The Indian company will continue to grow and maintain its strong financial performance.
  • The Indian economy will continue to grow and remain stable.
  • Currency fluctuations will not significantly impact the investment's return.

8. Next Steps

The investor should:

  1. Conduct a detailed due diligence process on the Indian company within the next 30 days.
  2. Develop a risk management strategy and financial model within the next 60 days.
  3. Make a decision on the investment within the next 90 days.

This timeline allows the investor to gather sufficient information and make a well-informed decision about the investment.

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Case Description

The case discusses the dilemma faced by Archit Shah, a practicing Chartered Accountant (CA) and portfolio manager based in Ahmedabad, India, for investment in foreign stocks to diversify the existing portfolio of his clients. The decision to invest was pertinent and urgent as few of his clients were reducing their funds due to stagnant growth of existing securities in the portfolio. He had heard about the benefits of investing in foreign markets from experts in different financial conferences as well as from his fellow friends in the field. To start safe, he decided to invest in FANMAG stock and do a detailed financial analysis. It was his first endeavour in a foreign stock, and he did not want to risk his clients' money. He did not restrict his analysis to P/L and balance sheet ratios and decided to first analyse the past free cash flows (FCFs) to understand the actual performance of the companies. While past performance cannot be the decision factor, he also decided to refer valuation as per discounted cash flow (DCF) model to put an end to his confusion. Portfolio or fund managers use FCF as one of the most important indicators for valuation as per DCF model to evaluate the true performance of a company. Market ratios like P/E ratio help to track the earnings and investor's perception while FCFs help to understand the actual cash available for shareholders. So, to get a true picture of FANMAG stock's performance, Shah decided to analyse it through various parameters like quality of earnings ratio, FCFs, and valuation ratios for a period of 5 years from 2016 to 2020. Additionally, the intrinsic value as per DCF model (valuation approach) was referred to finalize the investment decision. Thus, the case deals with the challenges faced by CA Shah for investment decisions by assessing the earnings quality and the cash flow-based valuation ratios.

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