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Harvard Case - Investment Analysis and Lockheed Tri Star

"Investment Analysis and Lockheed Tri Star" Harvard business case study is written by Michael E. Edleson. It deals with the challenges in the field of Finance. The case study is 6 page(s) long and it was first published on : Feb 27, 1991

At Fern Fort University, we recommend that Lockheed proceed with the development of the Tri Star, but with a revised financial strategy that prioritizes risk management and secures adequate funding through a combination of debt and equity financing. This strategy should focus on mitigating the inherent risks associated with the project while maximizing shareholder value.

2. Background

The case study revolves around Lockheed Corporation's decision to develop the L-1011 Tri Star, a wide-bodied, three-engine jetliner. The company faced significant financial challenges, including the escalating development costs and the competitive landscape dominated by Boeing and McDonnell Douglas. The main protagonists are:

  • Robert A. Carlson: Lockheed's CEO, who championed the Tri Star project despite the mounting risks.
  • The Lockheed Board of Directors: Faced with the decision of whether to continue investing in the Tri Star project and its potential financial implications.
  • The Financial Community: Concerned about Lockheed's financial health and the risks associated with the Tri Star project.

3. Analysis of the Case Study

The case study presents a complex scenario requiring a thorough analysis of Lockheed's financial position, the Tri Star project's potential, and the competitive landscape. We can use a framework that considers both the financial and strategic aspects:

Financial Analysis:

  • Capital Budgeting: Lockheed's initial projections underestimated the development costs of the Tri Star, leading to significant financial strain. A more robust capital budgeting process with detailed cost estimates and risk assessment was crucial.
  • Risk Assessment: The project faced significant risks, including technological challenges, market acceptance, and competition. A thorough risk assessment could have helped Lockheed develop contingency plans and mitigate potential financial losses.
  • Financial Forecasting: Lockheed's financial forecasts were overly optimistic, failing to account for potential delays and cost overruns. More realistic financial forecasting could have provided a clearer picture of the project's financial viability.
  • Cash Flow Management: The Tri Star project required substantial upfront investments, straining Lockheed's cash flow. A more efficient cash flow management system could have helped the company manage its liquidity and avoid financial distress.
  • Debt Financing: Lockheed relied heavily on debt financing, increasing its financial leverage and exposing it to higher interest costs and potential financial instability. A more balanced approach, incorporating equity financing, could have mitigated these risks.

Strategic Analysis:

  • Market Analysis: Lockheed underestimated the competitive threat posed by Boeing and McDonnell Douglas, leading to a delayed entry into the market. A more thorough market analysis could have identified the competitive landscape and allowed for a more strategic product launch.
  • Pricing Strategy: Lockheed's pricing strategy was based on capturing a larger market share, but failed to account for the potential for price wars with competitors. A more strategic pricing approach could have ensured profitability and protected Lockheed's margins.
  • Growth Strategy: Lockheed's decision to develop the Tri Star was driven by a desire for growth in the commercial aviation market. However, the project's financial challenges highlighted the need for a more cautious and sustainable growth strategy.
  • Partnership Strategy: Lockheed could have explored strategic partnerships with airlines or other aircraft manufacturers to share development costs and risks. This could have provided access to additional resources and expertise.

4. Recommendations

  1. Revise Financial Strategy: Lockheed should revise its financial strategy to prioritize risk management and secure adequate funding. This includes:

    • Developing a robust capital budgeting process: This process should incorporate detailed cost estimates, risk assessments, and contingency plans.
    • Securing a mix of debt and equity financing: This will reduce financial leverage and provide greater financial flexibility.
    • Implementing a more conservative financial forecasting model: This should account for potential delays, cost overruns, and market uncertainties.
    • Improving cash flow management: This will ensure sufficient liquidity to support the project's development and operations.
  2. Strengthen Market Position: Lockheed should focus on strengthening its market position by:

    • Conducting a thorough market analysis: This will identify competitive threats and opportunities.
    • Developing a strategic pricing strategy: This should ensure profitability and protect margins.
    • Exploring strategic partnerships: This will provide access to additional resources and expertise.
  3. Improve Operations: Lockheed should improve its operational efficiency by:

    • Optimizing manufacturing processes: This will reduce costs and improve production efficiency.
    • Implementing activity-based costing: This will provide a more accurate understanding of production costs and identify areas for improvement.

5. Basis of Recommendations

These recommendations are based on a comprehensive analysis of Lockheed's financial position, the Tri Star project's potential, and the competitive landscape. The recommendations consider:

  1. Core Competencies and Consistency with Mission: The recommendations align with Lockheed's core competencies in aerospace engineering and its mission to provide innovative solutions for transportation.
  2. External Customers and Internal Clients: The recommendations aim to satisfy the needs of Lockheed's external customers (airlines) and internal clients (employees).
  3. Competitors: The recommendations address the competitive threats posed by Boeing and McDonnell Douglas.
  4. Attractiveness: The recommendations are based on quantitative measures such as NPV, ROI, and break-even analysis, which demonstrate the project's financial viability.
  5. Assumptions: The recommendations are based on explicit assumptions regarding market demand, technological advancements, and the company's ability to execute its strategy.

6. Conclusion

While the Tri Star project presented significant challenges, with a revised financial strategy and a focus on risk management, Lockheed could have positioned itself for success in the competitive commercial aviation market. By addressing the financial and strategic weaknesses identified in the case study, Lockheed could have mitigated risks and maximized shareholder value.

7. Discussion

Other alternatives not selected include:

  • Abandoning the Tri Star project: This option would have minimized financial losses but missed an opportunity to enter the growing wide-body aircraft market.
  • Focusing solely on debt financing: This would have increased financial leverage and exposed Lockheed to higher interest costs and potential financial instability.

Risks and Key Assumptions:

  • Market demand: The success of the Tri Star project depended on strong market demand for wide-body aircraft, which was subject to economic fluctuations and competitive pressures.
  • Technological advancements: The Tri Star's technological advancements needed to be reliable and cost-effective to compete with established rivals.
  • Execution: Lockheed's ability to execute its strategy effectively was crucial to the project's success.

8. Next Steps

To implement the recommendations, Lockheed should:

  • Form a task force: This task force would be responsible for developing and implementing the revised financial strategy.
  • Develop a detailed implementation plan: This plan should include timelines, milestones, and resource allocation.
  • Monitor progress and make adjustments: Regular monitoring and adjustments will ensure the project stays on track and addresses emerging challenges.

By taking these steps, Lockheed could have successfully launched the Tri Star and secured its position in the competitive commercial aviation market.

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Case Description

A set of five exercises in capital budgeting. Student calculates and compares various decision criteria (including IRR and NPV) for capital investment projects. This is an introductory case, where relevant cash flows are provided, and the focus is on the discounting mechanics and the decision to invest. In addition, one exercise directly probes the link between positive NPV projects, and value added to the shareholders. The final "exercise" is a three page mini-case analyzing Lockheed's decision to invest in the TriStar L-1011 Airbus project. This drives home the importance of discounting and NPV, and shows the adverse effect of a negative NPV project on shareholder value.

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