Harvard Case - The Absheron Project: BP's Production Sharing Agreement in Azerbaijan
"The Absheron Project: BP's Production Sharing Agreement in Azerbaijan" Harvard business case study is written by Kenneth Eades, Sam Weitkemper, Emily Rees Kasradze. It deals with the challenges in the field of Finance. The case study is 9 page(s) long and it was first published on : Apr 12, 2016
At Fern Fort University, we recommend that BP proceed with the Absheron project, taking a cautious approach to minimize risks and maximize returns. This involves a comprehensive financial analysis, risk assessment, and capital budgeting process, along with a robust negotiation strategy to secure favorable terms within the Production Sharing Agreement (PSA). The project should be structured to align with BP's core competencies in exploration and production while considering the unique challenges and opportunities presented by the emerging market of Azerbaijan.
2. Background
The case study focuses on BP's decision to invest in the Absheron project, a large-scale natural gas development in Azerbaijan. BP, a global energy giant, faces the decision of whether to enter this high-risk, high-reward venture. The Absheron project presents a significant opportunity to expand BP's presence in the Caspian Sea region, a key source of energy resources. However, the project also carries substantial risks, including political instability, regulatory uncertainty, and potential environmental concerns.
The main protagonists are BP, the potential investor, and the Azerbaijani government, the project partner. The case study highlights the complexities of international business and government relations in the context of foreign investments and natural resource development.
3. Analysis of the Case Study
The analysis of the Absheron project can be structured using a framework that considers both strategic and financial aspects:
Strategic Framework:
- Industry Analysis: The global energy landscape is undergoing significant shifts due to factors like climate change, technological advancements, and geopolitical tensions. The Caspian Sea region holds significant potential for energy production, particularly natural gas, making it a strategically important area for BP.
- Competitive Analysis: BP faces competition from other international energy companies, including ExxonMobil, Chevron, and Total, all vying for access to resources and market share in the Caspian Sea.
- Resource Assessment: The Absheron field holds significant reserves of natural gas, but the exact size and quality of the reserves need to be further evaluated. This assessment is crucial for determining the project's long-term viability and profitability.
- Political and Regulatory Environment: Azerbaijan's political and regulatory environment presents both opportunities and risks. The government is eager to attract foreign investment in its energy sector, but there are concerns about corruption, transparency, and potential changes in government policy.
- Environmental Sustainability: BP must consider the environmental impact of the project, including potential risks to marine life and local communities. This requires a comprehensive environmental assessment and mitigation strategies to ensure responsible development.
Financial Framework:
- Financial Analysis: A thorough financial analysis is essential to assess the project's financial viability. This includes analyzing the project's cash flow, profitability, and return on investment (ROI).
- Capital Budgeting: BP needs to develop a robust capital budgeting process to evaluate the project's costs and benefits, considering the project's long-term implications and potential risks.
- Risk Assessment: The Absheron project involves significant risks, including political instability, regulatory uncertainty, and potential environmental issues. BP needs to conduct a comprehensive risk assessment to identify, quantify, and manage these risks.
- Financing Strategy: BP needs to develop a financing strategy that considers the project's capital requirements, potential sources of financing, and the cost of capital. This could involve a combination of debt financing, equity financing, and potentially private equity investment.
- Valuation Methods: BP needs to employ appropriate valuation methods to assess the project's fair market value and determine the appropriate level of investment. This could involve using discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis, comparable company analysis, or precedent transactions.
4. Recommendations
Based on the analysis, the following recommendations are proposed for BP:
- Proceed with the Absheron project, but with a cautious approach. The project holds significant potential for growth and profitability, but it also carries substantial risks.
- Negotiate a favorable Production Sharing Agreement (PSA) with the Azerbaijani government. This includes securing favorable terms on resource sharing, tax rates, and regulatory framework.
- Conduct a comprehensive financial analysis and risk assessment. This includes evaluating the project's cash flow, profitability, and return on investment (ROI), as well as identifying and quantifying potential risks.
- Develop a robust capital budgeting process. This involves carefully evaluating the project's costs and benefits, considering the project's long-term implications and potential risks.
- Implement a comprehensive environmental assessment and mitigation strategy. This ensures responsible development and minimizes potential environmental impacts.
- Develop a financing strategy that balances risk and return. This could involve a combination of debt financing, equity financing, and potentially private equity investment.
- Establish a strong governance framework for the project. This includes clear lines of responsibility, robust risk management procedures, and transparent reporting mechanisms.
- Monitor the project closely and adjust the strategy as needed. The project's success will depend on ongoing monitoring, evaluation, and adaptation to changing circumstances.
5. Basis of Recommendations
The recommendations are based on the following considerations:
- Core competencies and consistency with mission: The Absheron project aligns with BP's core competencies in exploration and production, contributing to the company's mission of providing energy solutions to the world.
- External customers and internal clients: The project has the potential to meet the growing demand for natural gas, serving both external customers and internal clients within BP's global network.
- Competitors: The project allows BP to compete effectively in the Caspian Sea region, securing access to valuable energy resources and expanding its market share.
- Attractiveness ' quantitative measures: The project's financial attractiveness is assessed through a comprehensive financial analysis, including cash flow projections, profitability analysis, and return on investment (ROI) calculations.
- Assumptions: The recommendations are based on explicit assumptions about the project's technical feasibility, resource availability, regulatory framework, and market conditions.
6. Conclusion
The Absheron project presents a significant opportunity for BP to expand its presence in the Caspian Sea region and secure access to valuable energy resources. However, the project also carries substantial risks that need to be carefully considered and managed. By adopting a cautious approach, conducting thorough due diligence, and negotiating favorable terms with the Azerbaijani government, BP can maximize the project's potential while minimizing its risks.
7. Discussion
Other alternatives not selected include:
- Abandoning the project: This option would minimize risk but also forgo the potential benefits of the project.
- Investing in a smaller-scale project: This option would reduce the financial commitment but also limit the potential returns.
The recommendations are subject to the following key assumptions:
- Political stability in Azerbaijan: The project's success depends on a stable political environment and predictable regulatory framework.
- Resource availability: The project's viability relies on the availability of sufficient natural gas reserves in the Absheron field.
- Market demand: The project's success depends on the continued demand for natural gas in the global market.
- Environmental regulations: The project's implementation must comply with environmental regulations and mitigate potential risks.
8. Next Steps
The following steps are recommended to implement the recommendations:
- Conduct a detailed feasibility study: This includes a comprehensive financial analysis, risk assessment, and environmental impact assessment.
- Negotiate a favorable Production Sharing Agreement (PSA) with the Azerbaijani government. This includes securing favorable terms on resource sharing, tax rates, and regulatory framework.
- Secure financing for the project: This involves exploring different financing options, including debt financing, equity financing, and potentially private equity investment.
- Develop a project management plan: This includes defining roles and responsibilities, establishing clear communication channels, and implementing robust risk management procedures.
- Monitor the project closely and adjust the strategy as needed. This involves tracking key performance indicators, evaluating the project's progress, and making necessary adjustments to ensure its success.
The timeline for implementing these steps will depend on the complexity of the project and the availability of resources. However, it is essential to move forward with a sense of urgency to capitalize on the opportunity presented by the Absheron project.
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Case Description
This case is used in a Darden second-year elective in corporate finance, "Corporate Financial Policies." It asks students to analyze the cash flows estimated for a production sharing agreement (PSA) between BP and the Azerbaijan government targeted for signing by year-end 2014. The primary relationship is a joint venture (JV) between BP and the State Oil Company of the Azerbaijan Republic (SOCAR). The JV is entitled to recover operating costs and capital costs from the proceeds of sales of the early production of the project and share profits earned from production, called the profit petroleum (PP), with Azerbaijan after the cost recoveries. Students are provided a detailed cash flow model for the project and for BP's equity investment and are asked to explain how the value estimates correlate with the risks assumed by the respective parties. This case is appropriate for students who have studied the principles of discounted cash flow and cost of capital. It is best positioned as part of a first-year MBA finance course as the last case in a module related to cash flow analysis. The case can also be taught in an MBA elective containing advanced corporate finance topics. It would be of special interest to students planning for a career related to energy, banking, or consulting, and also relevant for students interested in international business.
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